Cosco Corp - Watch for signs of exhaustion; short (CP: $1.47, Vol: 24,700, VPH: 3,800, ATR: 6)
F&N - Short; low volume to confirm (CP: $4.90, Vol: 980, VPH: 151, ATR: 12)
Note: I find myself asking as I do my homework - when do I know it's a seesaw? My temporary answer will be: when force is opposite of what the chart movement is displaying. Remember the lessons in weak hands vs strong hands, and apply to the intraday movements of the chart.
Addon: Shifu Ang enlightens, "you see a seesaw when the three FIs show different things."
Thursday, April 29, 2010
29 April 2010 - Yanlord
In life, you'll find more often than not that the wise words and lessons of wisdom will all come back to you after you screw up. Here's what came to me when I looked back at the happenings of today.
1. Don't trade an inactive chart
2. Don't fight the trend
3. Queue
4. For a stock to be exhausted, the volume has to be significantly lower
And so we have the situation of Yanlord. From yesterday's homework, I've been waiting for the 4th rule to kick in since morning, bringing the price up for me to short. The price did go up, but a careful look at the market depth might have told me to keep out.
Inactivity in the chart tells me that there are little players in the game, and with a flatline at $1.68 the end of the day, I could tell that someone's waiting to screw up the shortists from the last 5 days (Force Index).
Many times during the day I asked myself if I would've made the trade if I had a view of the market depth, which leads me to conclude that the information is invaluable when making a trade. As Shifu Ang once said - the EoD charts tell you what to do, the dailies tell you when to act, and the market depth tells you at what price.
I'm in for the short, and I'm holding on. If my gut is right (and it always isn't), I'll be in for one hell of a shake tomorrow.
The Breakdown:
Chart from Yahoo Finance
Fig. 1. Yanlord Intraday Chart, 29 April 2010
Yanlord
Opening Price: $1.66 (+$0.03)
Previous Volume: 11,200 (VPH: 4,230)
Closing Price: $4.06 ($-0.01)
Closing Volume: 12,200 (VPH: 1,723)
Price Acquired: $1.67 (Shorted)
Lots Acquired: 11
Break-Even Price: $1.68
The Call: A gap up in price tomorrow means I cover. There are shortists in the short run, and the long run Force Index seems bleak. Optimistically a failed pattern happens and I get to turn profit, but at the first sign of interest to buy I should split.
1. Don't trade an inactive chart
2. Don't fight the trend
3. Queue
4. For a stock to be exhausted, the volume has to be significantly lower
And so we have the situation of Yanlord. From yesterday's homework, I've been waiting for the 4th rule to kick in since morning, bringing the price up for me to short. The price did go up, but a careful look at the market depth might have told me to keep out.
Inactivity in the chart tells me that there are little players in the game, and with a flatline at $1.68 the end of the day, I could tell that someone's waiting to screw up the shortists from the last 5 days (Force Index).
Many times during the day I asked myself if I would've made the trade if I had a view of the market depth, which leads me to conclude that the information is invaluable when making a trade. As Shifu Ang once said - the EoD charts tell you what to do, the dailies tell you when to act, and the market depth tells you at what price.
I'm in for the short, and I'm holding on. If my gut is right (and it always isn't), I'll be in for one hell of a shake tomorrow.
The Breakdown:
Chart from Yahoo Finance
Fig. 1. Yanlord Intraday Chart, 29 April 2010Yanlord
Opening Price: $1.66 (+$0.03)
Previous Volume: 11,200 (VPH: 4,230)
Closing Price: $4.06 ($-0.01)
Closing Volume: 12,200 (VPH: 1,723)
Price Acquired: $1.67 (Shorted)
Lots Acquired: 11
Break-Even Price: $1.68
The Call: A gap up in price tomorrow means I cover. There are shortists in the short run, and the long run Force Index seems bleak. Optimistically a failed pattern happens and I get to turn profit, but at the first sign of interest to buy I should split.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Homework - 28 April 2010 (for trading day 30 April)
Lessons from previous day's homework:
Don't fight the trend.
Homework Proper:
Capitaland - To buy on volume and price pick up; reference from 08/02/10 (CP: $3.75, Vol: 25,500, VPH: 3,923, ATR: 7)
Cosco Corp - To short after morning spike in price; reference from this morning's intraday (CP: $1.70, Vol: 33,000, VPH: 5,077, ATR: 6)
Ezra - To buy on volume and price pick up (CP: $2.10, Vol: 8,410, VPH: 1,294, ATR: 7)
IndoAgri - To buy on volume spike; Force near or equal to zero (CP: $2.41, Vol: 5,110, VPH: 786, ATR: 8)
NOL - To short following exhaustion (CP: $2.15, Vol: 14,800, VPH: 2,277, ATR: 7
Olam - To short following exhaustion (CP: $2.61, Vol: 7,200, VPH: 1,108, ATR: 6)
StraitsAsia - To short after morning spike in price (CP: $2.04, Vol: 15,700, VPH: 2,415, ATR: 6)
Yanlord - To short after morning spike in price (CP: $1.63, Vol: 11,200, VPH: 1,723, ATR: 5)
PS: There are a few buys even after yesterday's lessons... How will this turn out? Addon: Shifu Ang informed me of a "when Force is near or equal to zero for all less the long term, the resultant run will be perfect, example from the recent Cosco Corp explosion. I've identified IndoAgri for a potential one, so let's see if it's a good call.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Homework - 27 April 2010 (for trading day 30 April)
Cosco Corp - To short on low volume; people caught high from 10d Force Index (CP:$$1.75, Vol: 19,000, VPH: 2,932, ATR: 5)
Ezra - To buy if volume picks up (CP:$2.18, Vol: 3,490, VPH: 537, ATR: 6)
StraitsAsia - To buy on a gap up or when volume picks up; got a weird gut feel on this but it might just be me out of action for too long (CP:$2.11, Vol: 6,690, VPH: 1,029, ATR: 5)
Ezra - To buy if volume picks up (CP:$2.18, Vol: 3,490, VPH: 537, ATR: 6)
StraitsAsia - To buy on a gap up or when volume picks up; got a weird gut feel on this but it might just be me out of action for too long (CP:$2.11, Vol: 6,690, VPH: 1,029, ATR: 5)
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