Mentor Ang told me about the Failed Pattern of SembCorp when he got back from CMPB (ask him for the story).
Waning interest called for a shorting opportunity, but someone decided that the run wasn't quite done yet. That's where we came in.
Arriving slightly after close for lunch, the market had already started the swing up. Optimistic me decided to enter the fray at $3.85 because it looked like a hurried before half-day close purchase.
Mentor Ang signaled the action at $3.89 later, and I got hit. Headaches came as buyer's anxiety tickled the "sell" button when the push didn't come and a high Bid Price (Vol/ATR) scenario occurred.
So here's the lesson of the day: CLEAR YOUR MIND. AND WAIT FOR THINGS TO UNFOLD.
A Failed Pattern seldom fails.
Breakdown:
Charts from Yahoo Finance.
Fig. 1. SembCorp Intraday - 10 March 2010This is the Intraday Chart for SembCorp. Notice the spike slightly before lunchtime without the support of much intensity. That made me believe that the hurried buys might settle back to my queue after lunch, but Mentor Ang advised against it (probably when compared to the Market Depth).
SembCorp
Opening Price: $3.83
Previous Volume: 2,660
Closing Price: $3.90
Closing Volume: 6,790
Previous Volume: 2,660
Closing Price: $3.90
Closing Volume: 6,790
Price Acquired: $3.89
Lots Acquired: 5
Break-even Price: $3.92
The Call: Hold and wait for tomorrow's rise; a Failed Pattern seldoms fails.
Lots Acquired: 5
Break-even Price: $3.92
The Call: Hold and wait for tomorrow's rise; a Failed Pattern seldoms fails.
For the interested, here're the other charts.
Fig. 2. SembCorp 5-Day Intraday
Fig.3. SembCorp 3-Month EoD
we got the best possible buying price.
ReplyDeletethe premise was the failed pattern... which usually results a in a very large move upwards.
there were hardly any selldowns when the price was under 390. but once the price hit 392, the sellers and buys started trading punches in a big way. we cant see that in intensity cos the trading were done at the same price. u can see heavy punches in the huge spike in vol near the closing.
remember this is an unadulterated stock.
Heavy punches are good... they drive attention and prices upwards in a bid to get the most out of the trade.
ReplyDeleteI didn't quite get your entry on unadulterated stocks... does it mean they are less likely to seesaw?